Market ReplayEpisode 00115–19 Oct 2026

The share did not hear the show. The contract did.

Tesla unveiled the new Roadster at 8:55 p.m. Eastern on 15 October 2026, after the US cash close. Tokenized Tesla rallied overnight. The contract on a 2027 delivery was cut from 34.5¢ to 8¢ while the car was still on stage.

IEX TSLA, Thursday to Monday close: 362.17 → 368.25
Binance TSLAB, overnight high: 382.69 +5.5%
Polymarket Yes, delivery by 2027: 34.5¢ → 8¢

01One clock, three markets

Walk the night

Cash Tesla on IEX, tokenized Tesla on crypto venues, and the prediction markets that opened around the car. Play the tape or drag it. It opens on the print that matters.

03/09Arrow keys move the tape

01:21:49

16 Oct UTC

Selling

Frame 3 of 9 · The print

Forty contracts sell at 8 cents.

The same minute, a liveblog records Musk putting production in 2028. The Yes for delivery by the end of 2027 leaves the low 30s.

IEX TSLAClosedCannot print this

Binance perp363.95Minute close, still falling

Delivery by 20278¢Sell 40. Then 10 more at 8¢

16 October 2026, UTC

Tokenized Tesla against the delivery contract, hour by hour

Binance TSLAB hourly close, USD
Polymarket Yes, delivery by 2027
US cash session

Violet is the Binance spot TSLAB hourly close. Red is the Polymarket Yes for a Roadster delivered by the end of 2027: 34.5¢ at the prior close, 8¢ at 01:21, 17¢ at 02:23, and 11¢ at the 11:29 close. The red line stops there because later hours have no daily bar in the history we pulled. Dots on the violet line are the frames above. Click one to jump.

02IEX TSLA

The share had to wait until Friday

Regular open against Thursday’s close: +1.9%
Regular open to the 19:06 low: −5.4%
IEX shares traded against Thursday: +41%

The livestream was scheduled for 7:55 p.m. Central, 8:55 p.m. Eastern, 00:55 UTC on 16 October. The regular US session was already over. IEX’s last TSLA print on the 15th is 20:26:28 UTC, at 362.17.

Friday’s daily bar opens at 374.82. That is one share at 12:11:51 UTC, in the thin premarket, not the opening auction. Before 13:30 UTC, IEX prints 764 shares in 34 trades and tags a high of 376.33. The regular session is the number to use: the 13:30 minute opens at 369.21, 1.9% above Thursday’s 362.17 close, and finishes that minute at 366.23 on 14,276 shares.

From there the session sells. The low is 349.39 at 19:06 UTC, 5.4% under the regular open and 3.5% under Thursday’s close. The 19:59 minute, the cash close, prints 354.65. A few after-hours trades leave the daily close at 352.68. IEX volume for the day is 1,035,090 shares and 21,617 trades, about 41% more shares than Thursday. These are IEX prints only. They are not the consolidated tape.

Monday 19 October closes at 368.25. That is back above Thursday. By the next cash close, the unveil has not stuck in the share.

IEX TSLA, FinFeedAPI Stock Historical. Prices in USD.

Session	Open	High	Low	Close	Shares
Thu 15 Oct	362.28	363.67	355.28	362.17	735,727
Fri 16 Oct, regular	369.21	370.39	349.39	354.65	1,032,739
Mon 19 Oct	354.63	369.58	354.63	368.25	794,525

03Tokenized TSLA

The token traded the show, then gave it back

Overnight high against Thursday’s spot close: +5.5%
Perpetual contracts in the 01:49 minute: 9,924
Spread across four venues at the 19:06 low: ~60¢

Tokenized Tesla did not have to wait. On Binance’s TSLA perpetual, the 00:55 UTC minute — the scheduled start — closes at 365.69. At 01:21, as the prediction market breaks, the minute opens at 364.75 and closes at 363.95. By 01:24 the low is 360.51, 1.2% under that 01:21 open. Hyperliquid’s xyz TSLA perp prints an hour low of 359.97. Binance spot TSLAB’s hour low is 360.33. Kraken TSLAx tags 360.03. Same dip, several books.

Then the books buy the demo. The 01:49 minute on the Binance perpetual trades 9,924 contracts, high 370.36, close 369.93. Through the rest of the night the token keeps climbing. The high of the UTC day is not during the livestream and not during the cash session. It is the 09:00 UTC hour, 5 to 6 a.m. Eastern: Binance spot 382.69, the Binance perpetual 382.97, Hyperliquid 382.47, Kraken TSLAx 382.19. Against Thursday’s Binance spot close of 362.67, that high is 5.5%.

The cash open pulls it back. In the 13:00 UTC hour Binance spot opens at 374.49, trades down to 363.93, and closes the hour at 367.38. At 19:06, the minute of the IEX low, the Binance perpetual low is 350.00. Hyperliquid’s hour low is 349.41. Binance spot’s hour low is 349.89. IEX is 349.39. Four venues, about sixty cents of range, on a price the overnight market had printed twelve dollars higher.

16 October UTC day. CoinAPI OHLCV. Closes are the venue close, not a consolidated price.

Venue	Book	High	Low	Close	Volume	Trades
IEX	TSLA	376.33	349.39	352.68	1,035,090	21,617
Binance spot	TSLAB/USDT	382.69	349.89	353.12	56,913	194,052
Binance perp	TSLA/USDT	382.97	350.00	353.28	1,307,499	1,013,693
Hyperliquid	xyz TSLA	382.47	349.41	352.55	597,822	130,339
Bybit perp	TSLA/USDT	382.94	350.02	353.26	132,594	110,831
Kraken	TSLAx/USD	382.19	349.41	352.46	2,211	1,018
Bybit spot	TSLAx/USDT	382.61	350.05	352.95	3,016	3,069
OKX	xTSLA/USDT	382.67	349.95	352.83	8,455	21,708

Price fidelity is not the same thing as depth. Kraken’s TSLAx book follows the path on 2,211 tokens. Binance spot does it on 56,913 tokens and 194,052 trades, about nine times Thursday’s spot volume and ten times Thursday’s trade count. Hyperliquid’s xyz perp is 597,822 contracts, about nine times Thursday. Ondo’s TSLAON on BingX and Gate trades the same shape with a livestream low near 361 and a few hundred tokens on the day.

Bitstamp bitcoin closes each hour of the livestream within about $400 of $82,000. The Tesla move is not a crypto-beta print. A few smaller perpetual venues report sizes that do not agree with their trade counts, so they are left out of the table. Where the prices agree to the dollar, the path above is the path.

Monday’s tokenized closes sit on the share: Binance spot 369.19, Hyperliquid 368.80, IEX 368.25. The overnight premium was a one-session fact.

04Polymarket and Kalshi

The contract repriced the timeline, and stayed there

Polymarket Yes, delivery by 2027, in one minute: 34.5¢ → 8¢
Kalshi Yes, delivered before 2028, across the show: 84¢ → 14¢
Kalshi book on 19 October, 12¢ bid and 20¢ ask: 8¢ wide

Polymarket’s “Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2027?” Yes contract spends 13–15 October parked at 32.5–34.5¢. The 15 October close is 34.5¢, on five trades. Then the trade history for the livestream returns this tape:

Polymarket trades, TESLA-ROADSTER-DELIVERED-BY-DECEMBER-31-2027_YES.

Time (UTC)	Side	Price	Size
16 Oct 01:21:49	Sell	0.08	40
16 Oct 01:21:57	Sell	0.08	10
16 Oct 01:22:07	Sell	0.10	8.57
16 Oct 01:22:08	Buy	0.09	5.94
16 Oct 02:23:35	Buy	0.17	15.88

01:21 UTC is 9:21 p.m. Eastern. In that minute, a contemporaneous liveblog records Musk saying production would be in 2028. The daily bar opens at 0.33, lows at 0.08, and closes at 0.11 at 11:29 UTC. The history request for later days returns no further daily bar. A current book request at 16:09 UTC on 20 October comes back with no resting bids or asks. The last session we can replay ends at 11¢.

The sibling contract, delivery by the end of 2026, goes from a 15 October close of 7.3¢ to a 16 October low of 1.2¢ and a close of 2.75¢.

Kalshi told the same story with a cleaner before-and-after, because a new tenor was listed the afternoon of the show. “Delivered before 1 January 2028” (KXTESLAROADSTER-28) prints 84¢ at 23:18 UTC on 15 October, on 2.68 contracts, about an hour and a half before the stream. The next session opens at 14¢ at 02:27 UTC and closes at 10¢ on 177 contracts. The 18 October close is 20¢. The 19 October close is 16¢. A book snapshot timestamped 19 October 03:09 UTC shows a best bid of 12¢ for 200 contracts and a best ask of 20¢ for 243. Eight cents wide. This is not a tight market. It is a market that moved, and then sat there.

“Delivered before 2029” is listed at 14:25 UTC on 16 October, 10:25 a.m. Eastern, while the cash share is still selling off. The 17 October bar trades from 60¢ to 62¢ on 80 contracts. A print on 20 October is 56¢. Production in 2028 is roughly a coin flip for a delivery before 2029, and a poor bet for a delivery before 2028.

The price was a different question

The unveil did not answer it. No MSRP was announced on stage. Kalshi’s “at least $300,000” Yes (KXROADSTERPRICE-28-300000) is bid into the show, from 34¢ at 18:02 UTC to 46¢ at 00:07 UTC. At 00:12:43 a 0.81-contract print goes off at 93¢ in the same millisecond as 26 contracts at 53¢. Treat the 93¢ as a sweep through a thin ask, not as the market. At 01:33, during the demo, 200 contracts trade at 50¢. Later closes sit around 54–63¢.

Higher strikes, including “at least $400,000”, were listed on the afternoon of the 15th. That contract’s first daily bar is the night of the show: open 13¢ at 00:08 UTC, close 22¢, 237 contracts, six trades. People were adding room above $300,000 before the car was shown. The show did not settle the question.

A later Polymarket event asks whether Tesla will do another live stunt. It was listed after this reveal. It is not part of the replay: the history call on 20 October did not return bars for it.

05One key, three datasets

Rerun the requests

The same API key reaches the stock history, the prediction markets, and the tokenized books. Swap in your own key. Times are UTC.

IEX TSLA, Friday regular session, 1-minute barsFinFeedAPI Stock

curl -s \
  "https://api-historical.stock.finfeedapi.com/v1/ohlcv/exchange-symbol/IEXG/TSLA/history?period_id=1MIN&time_start=2026-10-16T13:30:00Z&time_end=2026-10-16T20:00:00Z&limit=400" \
  -H "Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY"

Binance tokenized spot, the overnight hour that made the highCoinAPI Market Data

curl -s \
  "https://rest.coinapi.io/v1/ohlcv/BINANCE_SPOT_TSLAB_USDT/history?period_id=1HRS&time_start=2026-10-16T00:00:00Z&time_end=2026-10-17T00:00:00Z&limit=24" \
  -H "X-CoinAPI-Key: YOUR_API_KEY"

The 8-cent printFinFeedAPI Prediction Markets

curl -s \
  "https://api.prediction-markets.finfeedapi.com/v1/activity/POLYMARKET/TESLA-ROADSTER-DELIVERED-BY-DECEMBER-31-2027_YES/history/trades?time_start=2026-10-16T01:20:00Z&time_end=2026-10-16T02:30:00Z&limit=20" \
  -H "Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY"

Replay it yourself

Every print on this page came from one API key.

Stocks, tokenized books, prediction markets, and filings, with the timestamps left intact.

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