Market ReplayEpisode 00327–30 Oct 2026

The Fed holds in October: settled in five seconds, then the bets moved to December.

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October 2026, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Two of twelve voters wanted a hike. Polymarket’s October contract went from 97.9¢ to 99.9¢ in five seconds. The money moved to December: the hike traded 81¢ within a minute, 77¢ during the press conference, and about 70¢ two days later.

Polymarket Yes, no change in October
97.9¢ → 99.9¢

From 18:00:00.095 to 18:00:05.034 UTC. Kalshi had stopped trading at 17:59.

Polymarket Yes, 25bp hike in December
79¢ → 83¢ → 70.5¢

The last print before the statement, the high into the press conference, and Friday’s close.

IEX TLT, statement to close
81.475 → 81.01

Long Treasuries fell 0.57%. SHY, the short end, rose 0.07%.

01One clock, three markets

Walk the decision

The October contract, the December contract, and long Treasuries on IEX, from the day before to two days after. Play the tape or drag it. It opens on the statement.

03/10Arrow keys move the tape

18:00

28 Oct UTC

Buying

Frame 3 of 10 · The statement

Five seconds from 97.9¢ to 99.9¢.

The statement is out at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Polymarket’s no change trades 97.9¢ at 18:00:00.095, 99.8¢ at 18:00:03.44, and 99.9¢ at 18:00:05.03. At 18:00:05.616 a single fill takes 255,555 shares at 99.9¢. The vote is 10–2: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a 25bp hike.

October no change99.9¢255,555 shares in one fill at 18:00:05.616

December hikeNo tradeIts first print after the statement is 50 seconds away

IEX TLT81.4681.43 to 81.53 inside the minute

28 October 2026, 17:00–20:00 UTC

Long Treasuries against the December hike contract, minute by minute

  • IEX TLT, 1-minute close, USD
  • Polymarket Yes, December 25bp hike
  • After the 18:00 statement
IEX TLT one-minute closes from 17:00 to 20:00 UTC on 28 October against Polymarket trades in the December 25 basis point hike80.88181.281.475¢80¢85¢USDYes17:04:27 print: 76¢17:22:08 print: 77¢17:46:41 print, 174 shares: 78¢17:54:19 print, 5 shares: 79¢18:00:50 print, 12,393 shares: 81¢18:03:12 print: 83¢18:09:24 print, 1,828 shares: 81¢18:12:45 print: 83¢18:20:22 print: 81¢18:29:37 print, 4,866 shares: 82¢18:34:27 print, 2,000 shares: 83¢18:37:44 print, 656 shares: 79¢18:41:36 print, 6,603 shares: 82¢18:45:27 print: 77¢18:57:47 print: 80¢19:17:51 print, 278 shares: 79¢19:38:32 print, 3,245 shares: 80¢19:57:00 print, 12,169 shares: 81¢19:59:54 print: 81¢17:59 Kalshi closes18:00 The statement18:00:50 December reprices18:20 Before the presser18:33 Press conference18:45 The hike fades19:13 Long-bond low19:59 Cash close18:00 · The statement17:0017:3018:0018:3019:0019:3020:00
Violet is TLT on IEX, the long-Treasury ETF, closed every minute. Its price falls when long yields rise. Red is every sizeable Polymarket trade in a December 25bp hike: 78–79¢ before the statement, 81¢ fifty seconds after it, 83¢ into the press conference, 77¢ at 18:45, and 81¢ at the close. The shading starts at the 18:00 statement. The press conference starts at 18:30. Dots on the violet line are the frames above. Click one to jump.

02The FOMC statement

Held at 3¾ to 4%, with two votes for a hike

Federal funds target range, unchanged
3.75–4.00%
The vote. Both dissents wanted a 25bp hike
10–2
2:00 p.m. Eastern. The press conference follows at 18:30
18:00 UTC

The statement is released at 2:00 p.m. EDT, 18:00 UTC, while US daylight time still applies. The Committee “decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent”, by a 10–2 vote. “Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.”

The description of the economy is strong. “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.” Productivity growth is strong and capital investment robust. “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” On prices it says one thing: “Inflation remains elevated.” It gives no guidance on the next move.

Kevin Warsh’s press conference follows at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, 18:30 UTC, the Fed’s usual half hour after the statement. The replay does not quote it. It shows what the markets did while it ran.

03The October contracts

Kalshi closed at 97¢. Polymarket settled through the release

Kalshi’s October contracts close, a minute before the statement
17:59
Polymarket no change, 97.9¢ to 99.9¢
5 s
Traded on Polymarket’s October decision event, all outcomes
$101.9M

The two venues stop at different times. Kalshi’s “Fed maintains rate” contract has a close time of 17:59 UTC on the 28th. Its last trade is 97¢ at 17:59:00. On the day it trades about 804,000 contracts.

Polymarket’s “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?” keeps trading into the release. It is 97.7–98¢ in the last minute before 18:00. Then: 97.9¢ at 18:00:00.095, 98.5¢ at 18:00:02.68, 99.8¢ at 18:00:03.44, 99.9¢ at 18:00:05.034. At 18:00:05.616 one fill takes 255,555 shares at 99.9¢. The 18:00 minute trades 347,937 shares, about a third of the contract’s day.

The hike was the alternative, and it fades the other way. Polymarket’s 25bp hike trades around 2.8¢ in the last five minutes. At 17:59:13 a 10,032-share sell prints 2.2¢, and buys follow at 1.4–1.5¢. Its last print is 3.1¢ at 17:59:59.633, half a second before the statement. Kalshi’s hike last trades 3¢, at 17:58:55.

Daily closes, UTC, except the last column: the last trade before 18:00. FinFeedAPI Prediction Markets.

Contract15 Oct16 Oct22 Oct27 OctBefore 18:00
Kalshi, hold71¢87¢94¢95¢97¢
Kalshi, hike 25bps30¢14¢6¢5¢3¢
Polymarket, no change70.5¢86.5¢93.5¢95.8¢98¢
Polymarket, hike 25bps27.5¢13.5¢5.5¢3.85¢3.1¢

Most of the pricing is done two weeks out. The hold goes from about 71¢ to 87¢ between 15 and 16 October. After Meta’s results on 21 October it is 94¢. The last ten days add three cents, and the last five seconds two more.

04The December contracts

December gained 4¢ on the statement and lost 11¢ over the next two days

From the statement to the first December print, 81¢ on Polymarket
50 s
Polymarket hike, 18:34 to 18:45, during the press conference
83¢ → 77¢
Kalshi hike at Friday’s close, from 81¢ at Wednesday’s
70¢

The December contracts read the two dissents first. Polymarket’s 25bp hike has printed 78¢ at 17:46 and 79¢ for five shares at 17:54. Its first trade after the statement is 12,393 shares at 81¢, at 18:00:50. Kalshi’s first is a 5,000-contract buy at 79¢ at 18:00:52. By 18:03 they are 83¢ and 81¢.

The press conference gives it back on Polymarket and only partly on Kalshi. Polymarket’s hike trades 83¢ for the last time at 18:34:27, 79¢ at 18:37:44, and 77¢ at 18:45:27, under where it stood before the statement. Kalshi’s trades 83¢ at 18:41:56 and settles at 80–81¢. Both end the cash session at 81¢.

Last trade at or before each time on 28 October, then the daily close. UTC. FinFeedAPI Prediction Markets.

Contract17:5918:0318:4519:5929 Oct30 Oct
Polymarket, hike 25bps79¢82¢78¢81¢71.5¢70.5¢
Kalshi, hike 25bps79¢81¢80¢81¢71¢70¢
Polymarket, no change20¢17¢19¢16¢26.5¢27.5¢
Kalshi, hold20¢19¢18¢18¢28¢30¢

The hike that closed Wednesday at 81¢ is 71.5¢ on Polymarket on Thursday and 70.5¢ on Friday. Kalshi has it at 71¢ and 70¢. Most of Thursday’s fall comes late in the day, from 76.5¢ at 18:00 UTC to 71.5¢ by 22:00. A cut in December stays at 1–2¢ throughout. The bets did shift to December, and by the end of the week they were about 70% on a hike.

05Treasury ETFs and FX perpetuals

The short end rallied, the long end sold, the dollar slipped

IEX TLT from the 17:59 close to the cash close
−0.57%
IEX SHY over the same stretch
+0.07%
Hyperliquid euro perpetual, 18:32 to 18:43
+0.34%

Treasury yields are not in this replay. The ETFs that hold the bonds are, and their prices move against yields. SHY holds 1–3 year Treasuries, IEF 7–10 years, TLT over 20 years. On IEX the three go separate ways after 18:00.

Before the press conference, everything sells together: TLT from 81.475 to 81.135 by 18:20, SHY by a cent or two. At 18:33, three minutes into the press conference, both turn up. SHY goes from 81.39 to 81.51 at 18:44 and stays there. TLT reaches 81.48 at 18:36 and then falls for half an hour, to 80.73 at 19:13. Short yields fall and long yields rise: the curve steepens.

The dollar weakens in the same minutes. Hyperliquid’s euro perpetual goes from 1.1135 at 18:32 to 1.1173 at 18:43, and its yen perpetual, in yen per dollar, from 158.17 to 157.85. UUP, the dollar ETF, ends 0.21% under its 17:59 price.

IEX closes are the 19:59 UTC minute. Perpetuals are CoinAPI 1-minute closes. Prices in USD.

MarketVenue27 Oct close17:5928 Oct closeSince 17:59Day
SHY, 1–3 yearIEX81.4581.4281.47+0.07%+0.02%
IEF, 7–10 yearIEX91.0990.9390.85−0.09%−0.26%
TLT, 20+ yearIEX81.6481.47581.01−0.57%−0.77%
TLT perpetualHyperliquidn/a81.45780.961−0.61%n/a
UUP, dollarIEX29.1129.1329.07−0.21%−0.12%
Euro perpetualHyperliquidn/a1.11421.1160+0.16%n/a
GLD, goldIEX372.31370.26373.52+0.88%+0.33%

06IEX and tokenized indexes

Stocks ended up, and the tokens turned in the same minute

IEX SPY on the day. The S&P 500 was reported up 0.28%
+0.34%
Afternoon low on IEX SPY, the Binance SPY perpetual, and Hyperliquid’s S&P 500
18:33
IEX QQQ on the day. The Nasdaq was reported up 0.27%
+0.61%

Stocks take the statement quietly. IEX SPY trades 770.81 to 772.05 in the 18:00 minute and drifts to about 770 by 18:20. In the 18:33 minute it prints 769.65, its low after the statement, and closes the minute at 771.64. At 18:36 it is 773.33. The Binance SPY perpetual and Hyperliquid’s S&P 500 perpetual make their lows in the same minute and their highs at 18:36–18:37.

QQQ’s low after the statement comes earlier, at 18:16, and so do its tokens’. All six end the 19:59 minute above their 17:59 prices. On the day, SPY is up 0.34% and QQQ up 0.61%. Reported index closes were +0.28% for the S&P 500 and +0.27% for the Nasdaq Composite. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100, and IEX closes are the 19:59 minute, not the closing auction.

28 October, UTC. IEX from FinFeedAPI Stock. Perpetuals from CoinAPI. Low and high are after 18:00.

MarketVenue17:59LowHigh19:59Since 17:59
SPYIEX771.34769.65 at 18:33773.33 at 18:36772.28+0.12%
SPY perpetualBinance772.63770.89 at 18:33774.45 at 18:37773.42+0.10%
S&P 500 perpetualHyperliquid7,735.57,720.1 at 18:337,756.2 at 18:367,744.4+0.12%
QQQIEX722.59720.79 at 18:16726.09 at 18:43725.59+0.42%
QQQ perpetualBinance723.74721.95 at 18:16727.12 at 18:37726.48+0.38%
XYZ100 perpetualHyperliquid29,71429,637 at 18:1629,852 at 18:4329,835+0.41%

The tokens keep trading after 20:00, and both evenings have Big Tech earnings after the bell. The Binance QQQ perpetual loses 0.7% in the first half hour after the close on the 28th, and 1.1% on the 29th. IEX QQQ closes the 29th down 1.40% and the 30th down 3.48%. The replay does not put those moves on the Fed.

07Bitcoin, ether, Solana

Bitcoin rose with gold and against the dollar

Coinbase BTC from 17:59 to 19:59
+0.91%
Binance gold perpetual over the same two hours
+0.80%
Coinbase BTC on the 29th, UTC day
−4.26%

Coinbase bitcoin is 80,763 in the minute before the statement and trades 80,616 to 81,000 in the 18:00 minute. Its low after the statement is 80,600 at 18:16, the minute of the QQQ low. It ends the cash session at 81,502. Ether gains 1.16% and Solana 1.42% over the same two hours. Gold does the same thing: the Binance gold perpetual lows at 18:33 and ends 19:59 0.80% above its 17:59 price.

The next day undoes it. Bitcoin’s UTC day on the 29th closes at 77,784.51, down 4.26%. Most of the drop comes in two stretches, 00:30 to 02:30 and after 20:00 UTC.

Coinbase spot. CoinAPI 1-minute and daily closes, UTC. Prices in USD.

Asset17:5919:59Since 17:5928 Oct close29 Oct closeUTC day
BTC80,763.3581,502.09+0.91%81,249.3277,784.51−4.26%
ETH2,342.402,369.54+1.16%2,356.892,248.60−4.59%
SOL101.56103.00+1.42%102.3095.37−6.78%

08One key, four datasets

Rerun the requests

The same API key reaches the prediction markets, the stock history, the tokenized index, Treasury and FX books, and crypto spot. Swap in your own key. Times are UTC.

Polymarket “no change in October”, every trade on decision dayFinFeedAPI Prediction Markets
curl -s \
  "https://api.prediction-markets.finfeedapi.com/v1/activity/POLYMARKET/WILL-THERE-BE-NO-CHANGE-IN-FED-INTEREST-RATES-AFTER-THE-OCTOBER-2026-MEETING-20260617190324031_YES/history/trades?date=2026-10-28&limit=5000" \
  -H "Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY"
Kalshi December 25bp hike, the statement and the press conference, 1-minute barsFinFeedAPI Prediction Markets
curl -s \
  "https://api.prediction-markets.finfeedapi.com/v1/ohlcv/KALSHI/KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25_YES/history?period_id=1MIN&time_start=2026-10-28T17:00:00Z&time_end=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z&limit=200" \
  -H "Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY"
IEX TLT, the afternoon of the decision, 1-minute barsFinFeedAPI Stock
curl -s \
  "https://api-historical.stock.finfeedapi.com/v1/ohlcv/exchange-symbol/IEXG/TLT/history?period_id=1MIN&time_start=2026-10-28T17:00:00Z&time_end=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z&limit=200" \
  -H "Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY"
Hyperliquid euro perpetual through the press conference, 1-minute barsCoinAPI Market Data
curl -s \
  "https://rest.coinapi.io/v1/ohlcv/HYPERLIQUID_DPERP_XYZ_EUR_USDC/history?period_id=1MIN&time_start=2026-10-28T17:55:00Z&time_end=2026-10-28T19:00:00Z&limit=100" \
  -H "X-CoinAPI-Key: YOUR_API_KEY"

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