Market ReplayEpisode 00221–26 Oct 2026

Up 7% after the bell. Down 7% by the next one.

Meta reported after the US close on 21 October 2026. Revenue grew 26%. Free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion, and 2026 capital spending was guided to $135–145 billion. Tokenized Meta rallied 7% on the release and gave it back overnight. The share closed down 7.1% the next day, and the rest of the AI trade fell with it.

Binance META perp, release high
749.00 +7.0%

At 20:40 UTC, ten minutes into the call. IEX printed 7,067 shares in all of after-hours.

IEX META, regular close to close
698.54 → 648.77

The open was 3.2% lower. The low was 639.84 at 19:23.

Polymarket Yes, Meta dips to $640
37¢ → 98¢

952 contracts at 19:23:22 UTC, the minute IEX printed its low.

01One clock, three markets

Walk the night

Cash Meta on IEX, tokenized Meta on crypto venues, and the prediction markets that price where the share will trade. Play the tape or drag it. It opens on the after-hours high.

02/09Arrow keys move the tape

20:40

21 Oct UTC

Buying

Frame 2 of 9 · Release high

Ten minutes into the call, the high.

The call was scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern, 20:30 UTC. At 20:40 the perpetual tags 749.00 and IEX after-hours tags 747.56, both about 7% over the regular close. Coinbase bitcoin is at 84,650, up 0.25% since the close.

IEX META747.56After-hours high, 319 shares in the minute

Binance perp749.00High of the night, 4,698 contracts in the minute

Dip to $640No tradeNor does the $740 high. After-hours prices do not count

21–22 October 2026, UTC

Tokenized Meta against the $640 dip contract, ten minutes at a time

  • Binance META perp, 10-minute close, USD
  • Polymarket Yes, dip to $640
  • US cash session
Binance META perpetual ten-minute closes from 21 October 19:00 to 22 October 20:00 UTC against the Polymarket $640 dip priceUS cash session22 Oct65067570072575025¢50¢75¢USDYes19:17 print, before the release: 37¢13:30 print, the first since 19:17: 45¢13:40 print: 76¢13:42 print: 80¢19:23 print: 98¢20:01 The release20:40 Release high22:17 The fade08:00 Premarket13:30 Cash open19:23 Session low19:59 Cash close20:40 · Release high20:0000:0004:0008:0012:0016:0020:00
Violet is the Binance META perpetual, closed every ten minutes. Red is the Polymarket Yes on Meta trading at or under $640 in October: 37¢ before the release, 45¢ at the cash open, 80¢ at 13:42, and 98¢ at 19:23. The red line is dotted overnight because the contract did not trade between 19:17 and 13:30. Dots on the violet line are the frames above. Click one to jump.

02SEC 8-K and 10-Q

Revenue up 26%, free cash flow below zero

Free cash flow, third quarter
−$2.12B
Capital expenditures in the quarter
$34.91B
2026 capital expenditures outlook, narrowed from $130–145B
$135–145B

Meta’s 8-K for the quarter, accession 0001628280-26-066700, is filed on 21 October with four items: 1.01, 2.02, 8.01, and 9.01. Item 2.02 furnishes the press release as Exhibit 99.1. The release puts the conference call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific, 4:30 p.m. Eastern, 20:30 UTC.

Revenue is $64.60 billion, up 26%. Costs and expenses are $51.61 billion, up 68%, including a $9.89 billion legal charge. Capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, are $34.91 billion. Cash from operations is $32.79 billion. Free cash flow is negative $2.12 billion.

The outlook narrows 2026 capital expenditures to $135–145 billion, from $130–145 billion. For 2027 it gives no number, only this: “we expect to continue investing aggressively to support both our core business and emerging AI initiatives.”

The 10-Q follows on 22 October, accession 0001628280-26-066773. Its cash flow statement puts nine-month purchases of property and equipment at $83.06 billion, against $48.31 billion a year earlier. That is up 72%. Nine-month cash from operations is $96.87 billion.

03IEX META

The share rallied on 7,067 shares, then sold on 1.4 million

After-hours high against the regular close
+7.0%
Regular open against the 21 October close
−3.2%
Regular close to regular close
−7.1%

Meta’s regular session on 21 October ends with the 19:59 UTC minute at 698.54. The first after-hours minute, 20:01, prints 703.54 on 104 shares. By 20:03 IEX has printed 729.91. The after-hours high is 747.56 at 20:40, 7.0% over the close. The last IEX print of the night is 734.80 at 20:59. The whole after-hours tape is 7,067 shares in 270 trades.

The next IEX print is 682.42 at 12:02 UTC, 8:02 a.m. Eastern. Before the open, IEX prints 1,371 shares in 65 trades, between 675.33 and 682.48. The regular session opens at 676.40, 3.2% under the close and under the $680 strike. The first minute closes at 664.56 on 45,716 shares.

The low is 639.84 at 19:23, 8.4% under the 21 October close. The 19:59 minute closes at 648.77, down 7.12%. The regular session trades 1,438,931 shares in 30,624 trades. These are IEX prints only. They are not the consolidated tape.

Friday 23 October lows at 633.39 at 13:35 and closes at 642.26. Monday 26 October closes at 630.43, 9.75% under the close before the release.

IEX regular-session closes, the 19:59 UTC minute. FinFeedAPI Stock Historical. Prices in USD.

Symbol21 Oct22 OctChange26 OctSince 21 Oct
META698.54648.77−7.12%630.43−9.75%
AMZN262.37250.39−4.56%249.06−5.07%
NVDA221.91212.27−4.34%215.99−2.67%
AVGO337.75323.32−4.27%329.28−2.51%
GOOGL334.67324.20−3.13%316.84−5.33%
TSLA386.63374.72−3.08%391.69+1.31%
ORCL129.09125.50−2.78%126.07−2.34%
MSFT532.81521.60−2.10%532.62−0.04%
QQQ725.25704.56−2.85%712.10−1.81%
SPY773.13764.03−1.18%765.23−1.02%

Every name in the table closes lower on the 22nd. Tesla also filed its quarterly results on 21 October, 8-K item 2.02. By Monday, Tesla is above its 21 October close and Microsoft is back at it. Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet are further down than they were on Thursday.

04Tokenized META

The token traded the call. The share was asleep for it

Binance perpetual high at 20:40, ten minutes into the call
749.00
Binance perpetual contracts on 21 Oct against 20 Oct
4.8×
Perpetual contracts in the 08:00 hour against the hour before
27×

Tokenized Meta trades through the release, the call, and the night. On Binance’s META perpetual the 19:59 minute closes at 699.70. The 20:01 minute trades 39,228 contracts from 689.70 to 712.17. The first reaction goes both ways. The 20:03 minute reaches 732.18. At 20:40 the high is 749.00. In the same hour Bybit’s perpetual prints 749.44, Hyperliquid’s xyz META 748.69, Binance spot METAB 748.00, and Kraken METAx 746.63.

Then it fades: 717.69 at 21:08, 710.14 at 22:17, and a night low of 701.89 at 06:29 UTC. None of that is on IEX, which stops printing at 20:59.

At 08:00 UTC, 4 a.m. Eastern, US premarket trading opens. The perpetual’s first minute falls from 705.08 to 698.43. The hour trades 53,897 contracts against 1,977 the hour before, and ends at 684.53. At the 13:30 cash open the perpetual trades from 677.35 down to 664.57 in one minute. At 13:46 it is 649.23. At 19:23 it prints 641.17, the low of its UTC day, in the same minute as the IEX low.

CoinAPI OHLCV. The IEX close is the 19:59 regular minute. Token closes are the 22 October UTC day. Volume is the 21 October UTC day: shares on IEX, contracts or tokens elsewhere.

VenueBook19:00 hour closeRelease hour high22 Oct low22 Oct close21 Oct volume
IEXMETA698.54747.56639.84648.77885,309
Binance perpMETA/USDT699.70749.00641.17646.83452,401
Hyperliquidxyz META698.00748.69639.86645.72292,019
Bybit perpMETA/USDT699.74749.44641.01646.7443,812
OKX perpMETA/USDT698.58748.91641.20647.0442,167
Binance spotMETAB/USDT698.54748.00641.17646.542,745
Bybit spotMETAx/USDT700.36748.66642.63648.412,960
OKX spotxMETA/USDT698.89748.28640.86647.052,310
KrakenMETAx/USD698.82746.63640.39645.22802

Volume says where the release traded. IEX’s whole after-hours session is 7,067 shares. Binance’s perpetual trades 217,697 contracts in the 20:00 UTC hour alone, and 452,401 on the UTC day, 4.8 times the 20th. Hyperliquid’s xyz perpetual trades 292,019 on the day, 3.3 times the 20th. The spot tokens follow the same path on a few thousand tokens.

The weekend belongs to the token too. Friday’s IEX close is 642.26. On Saturday the Binance perpetual trades between 638.63 and 643.69, and Hyperliquid between 637.59 and 642.38. Monday’s IEX close is 630.43. The Binance perpetual’s UTC day ends at 633.60.

05The AI book, tokenized

Nvidia’s token was down 2% while Meta’s was still up

Nvidia perpetual at 07:59 UTC, before US premarket, against its 21 October close
−2.03%
Meta perpetual in the same minute
+0.77%
Of Broadcom’s day move already in its token before New York opened
78%

The release does not move the rest of the AI book. In the 20:00 UTC hour the Binance META perpetual gains 5.03%. The Nvidia perpetual gains 0.26%, Alphabet 0.18%, and Amazon 0.13%. Broadcom gives up 0.51% and Microsoft 0.08%.

The selling starts in Asian hours, when only the tokens trade. Between 00:59 and 07:59 UTC Nvidia’s perpetual goes from 0.77% to 2.03% under its 21 October close, Broadcom’s from 0.97% to 2.35%, and Amazon’s from 0.37% to 1.59%. Coinbase bitcoin falls 2.37% in the same seven hours. At 07:59, a minute before US premarket opens, Meta’s own perpetual is still 0.77% above its close.

By 13:29, the minute before the cash open, Broadcom’s token has priced 78% of its day’s move, Nvidia’s 49%, Meta’s 45%, Alphabet’s 40%, and Amazon’s 34%. Microsoft’s is back above its close and takes the whole 2.1% in the session.

The tokens end the day where the shares do. Every stock closes within 0.12 points of its IEX regular-session change.

Binance perpetuals, change from the 21 October 19:59 UTC close. IEX is the regular-session close to close. Before the open is the 13:29 change as a share of the 19:59 change.

Name20:5907:5913:2919:59IEXBefore the open
META+5.03%+0.77%−3.18%−7.13%−7.12%45%
NVDA+0.26%−2.03%−2.07%−4.22%−4.34%49%
AVGO−0.51%−2.35%−3.26%−4.21%−4.27%78%
GOOGL+0.18%−1.25%−1.24%−3.11%−3.13%40%
AMZN+0.13%−1.59%−1.53%−4.55%−4.56%34%
MSFT−0.08%−0.79%+0.13%−2.09%−2.10%None
Coinbase BTC+0.21%−2.72%−3.17%−3.62%n/a88%

06Polymarket and Kalshi

The upside strikes could not see the rally. The downside strikes filled

Polymarket Yes, Meta dips to $640 in October
37¢ → 98¢
Polymarket Yes, Meta reaches $720 in October
66¢ → 10¢
Kalshi Yes, the Fed hikes 25bps in October
12¢ → 6¢

Polymarket lists a ladder for Meta in October: “Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 in October?”, and the same question for lows. The rules read Pyth 1-minute candles and count regular trading hours only. Pre-market and after-hours prices do not qualify.

That rule is why the release barely touched the upside strikes. The $740 strike listed from 16 October last traded at 55¢ at 14:43 on the 21st. While the token and IEX after-hours both traded above $740, it did not trade at all. Its next print is 4¢, at 20:10 on the 22nd. The $780 strike did trade into the spike, 31¢ at 20:04, and was 10¢ by 08:31.

Polymarket Yes trades, “What will Meta hit in October 2026?”. Times are UTC.

StrikeBefore the releaseOvernightFrom the 13:30 open
High $78022¢31¢ at 20:04, 10¢ at 08:3116¢
High $740, listed 16 Oct55¢No trades4¢ at 20:10
High $720, listed 16 Oct66¢No trades10–12¢
Low $68071¢55¢ at 23:46No trades. Opens at 676.40
Low $66061¢62¢ at 11:1898¢ at 13:31:40
Low $64037¢No trades98¢ at 19:23:22
Low $62023¢No trades55¢ at 19:23:20
Low $60014¢No trades23¢ at 19:32

On the downside, the contracts trade the share minute for minute once New York opens. The $660 dip is 73¢ at 13:30:08 and 98¢ at 13:31:40, in the minute IEX prints 659.76. The $640 dip is 45¢ at 13:30:11, 80¢ at 13:42, and 98¢ for 952 contracts at 19:23:22. The $620 dip trades 55¢ two seconds earlier. It is back at 44–50¢ on Monday. Meta’s low through Monday is 627.84.

New strikes are listed as old ones resolve. A $700 high, listed from 22 October, trades 18–21¢ on the morning of the 23rd and 16¢ on Monday.

Daily closes, UTC. FinFeedAPI Prediction Markets.

Contract20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct26 Oct
Kalshi, hold88¢89¢94¢93¢93¢
Kalshi, hike 25bps13¢12¢6¢8¢8¢
Kalshi, cut 25bps1¢1¢1¢1¢1¢
Polymarket, no change86.5¢87.5¢93.5¢92.5¢93.5¢

07Bitcoin, ether, Solana

Crypto did not trade the release

Coinbase BTC in the release hour, while the META perpetual gained 5.03%
+0.21%
Coinbase BTC in the 22 October cash session, while IEX META fell 4.08%
−0.46%
META perpetual in Saturday’s crypto drop, while BTC fell 1.84%
−0.72%

Crypto trades the same night as tokenized Meta, on some of the same venues. It does not trade the same news. From the 19:59 close to 20:59 on the 21st, the Binance META perpetual gains 5.03% and Coinbase bitcoin 0.21%. At 20:40, when the perpetual prints 749.00, bitcoin is at 84,650.

The one stretch where they fall together is Asian hours. From 00:59 to 08:59 UTC on the 22nd, bitcoin falls 2.81% and the META perpetual 4.28%. Then New York opens. From the 13:30 open to the 19:59 close, IEX META falls 4.08%. Bitcoin falls 0.46%, inside a range of 80,789.61 to 81,997.76. At 19:23, the minute of the Meta low, bitcoin is at 81,321.

Same window, two markets. Coinbase BTC/USD and META, minute bars, CoinAPI and FinFeedAPI. Times are UTC.

WindowCoinbase BTCMETAMETA venue
Release, 21 Oct 19:59–20:59+0.21%+5.03%Binance perp
Asian hours, 22 Oct 00:59–08:59−2.81%−4.28%Binance perp
Cash session, 22 Oct 13:30–19:59−0.46%−4.08%IEX
Saturday 24 Oct, 14:00 to the low−1.84%−0.72%Binance perp

The UTC day still closes lower: bitcoin 3.2% at 81,306.88, ether 3.5%, Solana 3.1%. The round numbers break two days later, on Saturday 24 October, with the share closed. Coinbase Solana trades under $100 at 14:16 and bitcoin under $80,000 at 14:18, the first time since 15 October. Ether, already under $2,350 late on Friday, reaches 2,275.94 at 15:19. Solana lows at 98.51 at 15:19 and bitcoin at 79,107 at 15:25. In that move the META perpetual goes from 643.24 to 638.63. The Nvidia perpetual’s low is 211.11, against a 211.66 open.

Coinbase spot, UTC day closes. CoinAPI OHLCV. Prices in USD.

Asset21 Oct22 OctChangeSaturday low26 Oct
BTC84,024.6781,306.88−3.23%79,107.0080,008.79
ETH2,471.832,385.98−3.47%2,275.942,320.34
SOL106.88103.53−3.13%98.51100.76

08One key, five datasets

Rerun the requests

IEX META, the 22 October regular session, 1-minute barsFinFeedAPI Stock
curl -s \
  "https://api-historical.stock.finfeedapi.com/v1/ohlcv/exchange-symbol/IEXG/META/history?period_id=1MIN&time_start=2026-10-22T13:30:00Z&time_end=2026-10-22T20:00:00Z&limit=400" \
  -H "Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY"
Binance META perpetual, the release and the call, 1-minute barsCoinAPI Market Data
curl -s \
  "https://rest.coinapi.io/v1/ohlcv/BINANCEFTS_PERP_META_USDT/history?period_id=1MIN&time_start=2026-10-21T19:55:00Z&time_end=2026-10-21T22:30:00Z&limit=200" \
  -H "X-CoinAPI-Key: YOUR_API_KEY"
The $640 dip, every trade in the cash sessionFinFeedAPI Prediction Markets
curl -s \
  "https://api.prediction-markets.finfeedapi.com/v1/activity/POLYMARKET/WILL-META-DIP-TO-640-IN-OCTOBER-2026_YES/history/trades?time_start=2026-10-22T13:30:00Z&time_end=2026-10-22T20:00:00Z&limit=50" \
  -H "Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY"
Meta’s 8-K, item by itemFinFeedAPI SEC
curl -s \
  "https://api.sec.finfeedapi.com/v1/extractor?accession_number=0001628280-26-066700&type=text" \
  -H "Authorization: YOUR_API_KEY"

Replay it yourself

Every print on this page came from one API key.

Stocks, tokenized books, prediction markets, filings, and crypto, with the timestamps left intact.